“The assumption used to set the new electricity pricing starting on February 1, 2023, particularly worries the IES. The rates for the cedi/dollar exchange rate and the inflation rates, according to the IES, reflect market circumstances for the four key factors.

However, the IES believes that the PURC’s projection that the mix of energy generation will be 26.11 percent hydro and 73.89 percent thermal is unfounded. Given that water elevations for the Bui and Akosombo generating stations (GS) have improved and are expected to produce close to 38% of the power in 2023, according to IES’ estimates, that assumption translates to giving thermal power generation preference over hydro.

According to statistics from Akosombo and Bui, elevations at the beginning of 2023 compared to past years are in a better position to produce more energy than the thermal sources, which is why it feels PURC has been quite conservative in its estimation of hydro power output for the period.

For instance, it stated that with an estimated year-start Akosombo water level elevation of 83.10 metres (272.66 feet), total energy production from the Akosombo GS is predicted to fall between 7,500 and 8,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) for 2023, with the Kpong GS producing approximately 990 GWh of electric energy during that time.

“Bui’s water elevation is expected to help create more megawatts to satisfy rising energy demand, particularly during peak hours, and extended to support voltage on the grid and help reduce transmission losses if dispatched cautiously throughout the year,” the statement continued.

“The Institute concurs with the forecast that, if natural gas supply is maintained and planned plant maintenance schedules are faithfully followed, the majority of capacity generation for 2023 will come from thermal sources. Should hydro-electric have despatch priority over thermal in the generating mix, hydro-power generation is projected to produce close to 38% of 2023 capacity with enhanced water-head levels.